Obesity May Offset Life Expectancy Gains from Nation's Reduced Smoking Rate

The Los Angeles Times (12/2, Stein) reported, "Americans have increased their life expectancy by cutting back on cigarettes, but the pounds they're packing on means that, ultimately, they could lose ground." That was the unfortunate conclusion investigators at Harvard University, the University of Michigan, and the National Bureau of Economic Research reached after looking "at previous national health surveys to forecast life expectancy and quality of life for a typical 18-year-old from 2005 through 2020."

Data from the US Social Security Administration indicated that "as of 2005, a typical 18-year-old male was expected to live to about age 76, while an 18-year-old woman would live to about age 81," Bloomberg News (12/3) notes. But, "under one scenario of obesity and smoking trends, by 2020 the future life expectancy of a typical 18-year-old would be shortened eight months."

"On the other hand," HealthDay (12/2, Gordon) reported, "the researchers calculated what would happen if everyone in America maintained a normal weight and no one smoked. If these two behavior changes were to occur, Americans would gain nearly four years of life."

Time (12/2, O'Callaghan) reported in its "Wellness" blog that obesity and smoking take a "sizable...public health toll." Should "long-term smoking trends persist -- with a general decrease of 1.5% per year -- researchers suggest that by 2020 the population of current smokers will drop by 21%, the population of former smokers who have quit in the previous 10 years will drop by 44%, and those who have had a smoke-free decade or more will increase by 5%." That sounds like "great news for public health, but when those projections are put alongside figures for obesity rates, the picture is less promising." In other words, "if current obesity trends continue, by 2020, nearly half of the US population (45%) will be classified as obese."

Overall, MedPage Today (12/2, Phend) reported, "life expectancy isn't expected to fall over the next decade, the researchers cautioned. Instead, their estimates suggest that 'life expectancy will continue to rise, but less rapidly than it otherwise would.'" Still, the findings "should be a wake-up call for policymakers and physicians," lead researcher Susan T Stewart, PhD, said.

Public health efforts "should focus on stabilization or reversal of trends in BMI, continued reductions in tobacco use, and better control of the clinical risk factors associated with obesity and smoking," HeartWire (12/2, Nainggolan) reported. "Inadequate progress in these areas could result in an erosion of the pattern of steady gains in health observed in the US since the early 20th century," the authors concluded. HealthDay(11/2, Gordon) and WebMD (12/2, Boyles) also covered the study.